Interactive · projected 2030 apportionment
Eleven House seats shift in the projected 2030 reapportionment, redrawing the electoral map before a single ballot is cast. Click any state to cycle it Toss-up → Democrat → Republican and watch both sides race for the magic number.
The cartogram
Sized in a fixed grid, labeled with its projected 2030 electoral votes. Click to cycle; the dashed gold ring marks a battleground.
Projected apportionment shift — Gains FL +4, TX +4, AZ +1, DE +1, GA +1, ID +1, NC +1, TN +1, UT +1 · Losses CA −5, NY −3, IL −2, MN −1, OR −1, PA −1, RI −1, WI −1
How to read this
Every ten years the census reallocates the 435 House seats among the states. Each state's electoral votes equal its House seats plus two senators, so when seats move, the map's math moves with them.
This projection moves 11 seats — the Sun Belt gains, the coasts and Rust Belt give back.
The route math turns on seven states that have flipped in recent cycles: AZ, GA, MI, NV, NC, PA, WI. They carry the dashed gold ring on the board.
The Routes to 270 panel leaves them open and lists the smallest combinations that still clinch a win for each side.
Electoral votes use the projected 2030 apportionment shown in the Axios chart, taken at face value. Maine and Nebraska are treated as whole states rather than split by district.
538 votes total · 270 to win. This is a sandbox for exploring outcomes, not a forecast.